2023: Full List of States Atiku, Tinubu, Peter Obi May Win Emerges as SBM Intelligence Releases Projections

  • Ahead of the 2023 presidential election in Nigeria, SBM Intelligence has released its projections of state winners
  • The research firm predicts that Tinubu of the APC will win 13 states, Atiku of the PDP will take 12 while Labour Party’s Peter Obi will win 9
  • Overall, the SBM predicts that there will be a run-off, the first in the country’s history but put an important caveat

SBM Intelligence, a research firm that analyses West African geopolitical and economic situation, has released its projection of the forthcoming 2023 presidential election in Nigeria.

Atiku/Tinubu/Peter Obi/2023 Presidential Election/SBM Intelligence
SBM Intelligence releases its projections for the 2023 presidential election in Nigeria.
Photo credits: Atiku Abubakar, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Mr. Peter Obi
Source: Facebook

The firm predicts the states that will be won by the top three candidates in the election, namely:

  1. Asiwaju Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC)
  2. Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)
  3. Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP)

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2023 presidential election set to be the tightest, says SBM

According to the SBM, the 2023 presidential election is set to be the tightest in Nigeria’s history. As such, the research firm predicts that there will be a run-off, the first in the country’s history.

Nevertheless, the SBM gave a caveat that “a week is a long time in politics”.

2023 presidency: List of states Tinubu may win, SBM projects

  1. Yobe state
  2. Borno state
  3. Zamfara state
  4. Katsina state
  5. Jigawa state
  6. Niger state
  7. Nasarawa state
  8. Kogi state
  9. Oyo state
  10. Ondo state
  11. Ekiti state
  12. Lagos state
  13. Ogun state

2023 presidency: List of states Atiku may win, SBM projects

  1. Sokoto state
  2. Kaduna state
  3. Bauchi state
  4. Gombe state
  5. Adamawa state
  6. Taraba state
  7. FCT
  8. Osun state
  9. Delta state
  10. Bayelsa state
  11. Rivers state
  12. Akwa Ibom state

2023 presidency: List of states Peter Obi may win, SBM projects

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  1. Benue state
  2. Enugu state
  3. Ebonyi state
  4. Anambra state
  5. Imo state
  6. Abia state
  7. Cross River state
  8. Edo state
  9. Plateau state

List of states that are too close to call

  1. Kebbi state
  2. Kano state
  3. Kwara state notes that the SBM’s projection indicates that Tinubu will win 13 states while Atiku will win 12. Obi will take nine states, according to the projection.

2023 presidency: Reno Omokri lists 20 states ‘Atiku will win outright’

Meanwhile, contary to SBM Intelligence’s projections, Reno Omokri, a PDP chieftain, predicted Atiku would win 20 states.

Some of the states the former presidential aide listed include Kano, Delta and Katsina.

He added that Atiku will get at least 25% in states he does not win outrightly.


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